Week Seventeen Analysis:
Vincent Jackson holds the second-highest target percentage and red zone target percentage in the league, so he's obviously the primary weapon on Tampa Bay, who are in New Orleans this weekend. The Saints lost starting strong safety Kenny Vaccaro to a fractured ankle last week, and that's a huge blow to their secondary. Jackson had a respectable five catches for 77 yards in the first meeting, and that's a safe floor here.
Week Sixteen Analysis:
Vincent Jackson has had some brutal stretches against tough secondaries, but owners with resolve should be rewarded with a sweet matchup in St. Louis. The Rams have allowed double-digit fantasy points to every opposing No. 1 receiver, including touchdowns to comparable physical receivers like Marques Colston, Larry Fitzgerald, and Brandon Marshall in three of their last four games. And over the last five weeks, they're allowing 16.5 receptions per game to wide receivers, which are 2.5 receptions worse than the next highest team.
Week Fifteen Analysis:
There are a lot of good things you can say about Vincent Jackson, but many won't apply in a brutal matchup against the 49ers this week. San Francisco has surrendered just two touchdowns to wide receivers in their last seven games, and they are one of 11 teams holding opposing receiver units to less than 150 yards per game. Jackson, who is one of 13 wideouts with more than 1,000 yards on the season, is always a threat to go deep but you need to be wary here. He also hasn't seen double-digit targets or topped three receptions in a month, so proceed with caution.
Week Fourteen Analysis:
Vincent Jackson has been a victim of double teams and bracket coverage all season, but he has a favorable matchup this week against the Bills, who have allowed the third-most yards and second-most touchdowns to receivers this season. In addition, two comparable, physical receivers, A.J. Green and Josh Gordon, both topped 85 yards and scored against Buffalo. And that's probably due in large part to no member of their secondary standing taller than six feet. At 6'5", Jackson has distinct size advantage, and with the second-highest target percentage in the league, he should see plenty of work at home on Sunday.
Week Thirteen Analysis:
The Panthers have been fantasy poison to wide receivers this year, surrendering just three touchdowns to the position all season! Vincent Jackson was targeted 13 times and caught five balls for 79 yards when these two teams met five weeks ago, and he'll need to be heavily involved for the Bucs to have a chance. Jackson's a good eight inches taller than Carolina's best cover cornerback, Captain Munnerlyn, which means he shouldn't be shadowed exclusively but should see his fair share of double teams and bracket coverage. The silver lining is that Mike Wallace burned Carolina for 127 yards and a score last week, and V-Jax obviously possesses the same big play potential.
Week Twelve Analysis:
Now that Vincent Jackson is through with the stretch of Pro-Bowl cornerbacks, he's starting to have some fun again. This week he'll square off with Detroit's secondary, which might be the worst in the league right now. In their last four games, the Lions have allowed nearly 220 yards per game to the position and a total of 10 touchdowns. We all know Jackson can turn it on against poor secondaries. Between the four games against the soft secondaries in Philadelphia, Atlanta (twice), and the New York Jets, V-Jax averaged 9 receptions, 143 yards and a full touchdown per game. Mike Glennon is also glued to his No. 1 receiver, as Jackson's 35.2 target percentage is the highest ratio in the NFL this season.
Week Eleven Analysis:
Vincent Jackson has run through a gauntlet of tough secondaries in the last three weeks (Miami, Seattle, and Carolina), but relief is on the way in the form of the Falcons. Atlanta has been awful against the pass and is one of three teams allowing at least 180 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to receivers. Jackson also torched them for 10 catches, 138 yards, and two touchdowns just four weeks ago. He is Mike Glennon's go-to guy, as evidenced by his 34.8 target percentage, second highest in NFL. And he should stuff the stat sheet against one of fantasy football's friendliest defenses.
Week Ten Analysis:
After getting swallowed by Sherman Sound in Seattle, Vincent Jackson will be happy to play anyone else, in any other arena. He plays the Dolphins at home this week, who might be even better than the Seahawks. Miami has allowed only one touchdown to receivers all season, and they rank a respectable 14th in yards per game to the position. Still, A.J. Green was able to have a big game against them last week, and Jackson is a fair enough comparison, as they are both freakish athletes and two of the three players averaging more than 11 targets per game this season.
Week Nine Analysis:
This Sunday, Vincent Jackson will be "enjoying" the views of Sherman Sound and swimming in the shark-infested waters that is Seattle's secondary. V-Jax has been one of fantasy's hottest receivers as of late, but this matchup is less than ideal, as the Seahawks have yet to allow a wide receiver touchdown at home this year. Seattle also hasn't surrendered a score to the position over their last three games, and no wideout has topped 70 yards in that span. Regardless, Jackson is the only receiver to garner over 35% of his team's targets and over 40% of the looks in the red zone. He should be heavily involved and there's good chance for garbage time here, which is always welcome in fantasy football.
Week Eight Analysis:
Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon only has eyes for Vincent Jackson. His 22 targets last week were most in the league, and V-Jax now averages 13 targets per game. That is two more than the next closest player. The Bucs defense has spoiled, surrendering 31 points in back-to-back games. And coupled with the loss of Doug Martin, Glennon should lean on Jackson even more moving forward. Tampa hosts Carolina Thursday on a shortened week, and cornerback Captain Munnerlyn should stand a tough test. He hasn't allowed a touchdown in coverage and ranks comfortably inside the top-20 of Pro Football Focus cornerback rankings. Jackson did score in his last meeting with the Panthers but is a must-start stud, regardless of the tough matchup.
Week Seven Analysis:
Last week, rookie quarterback Mike Glennon squashed any concern over his ability to get Vincent Jackson the ball, as V-Jax went off for nine catches, 114 yards, and two touchdowns. The Bucs next face the Falcons, a team Jackson averaged five receptions and 73 yards against in last year's two matchups. Atlanta surrendered only seven scores to receivers last season – the fewest in the NFL – but they've matched that total already in just five games. Mike Williams should make his return, meaning the Falcons won't be able to roll coverage onto Jackson as easily. Regardless, Jackson garners 36% of his team's targets – the highest ratio in the league – so he should have the pigskin in his hands plenty of times on Sunday.
Week Six Analysis:
Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon gets the first easy matchup of his career against an awful Eagles pass defense that has allowed nine touchdowns to receivers this season – by far the most in the league. Philly has surrendered consecutive big games to big physical receivers on the outside. Demaryius Thomas and Hakeem Nicks recently combined for 18 catches, 228 yards, and two touchdowns. Yes, Glennon is inexperienced, but Vincent Jackson has the highest target percentage among all receivers and boasts six catches of 20-plus yards in four games. Glennon, even considering his lack of experience, should find a way to taking some shots downfield.
Week Four Analysis:
Vincent Jackson's stock took a bit of a tumble when it was announced Josh Freeman will be benched this week in favor of rookie Mike Glennon. The hits just keep on coming for V-Jax, who has yet to score and has seen his targets and yardage drop each week. Jackson averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game at home last season, and it's anticipated he will have Patrick Peterson on him for most of the day. But, Peterson's been a bit off this season with three touchdowns allowed already. And last Sunday, Arizona's starting free safety, Rashad Johnson, proved himself to be the world's worst player of the "just the tip" game. He lost the top portion of his left middle finger, so who knows if he'll play. We have no idea if Glennon can pass, so start Jackson with caution.
Week Three Analysis:
The Patriots have played against the pass pretty well this season, but that doesn't mean whole lot considering they faced two rookie quarterbacks in Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel. There is turmoil in down Tampa Bay with head coach Greg Schianoe but it hasn't taken much of a toll on Vincent Jackson. V-Jax already has six catches of 20-plus yards and has received over 45% of his teams' targets – the highest ratio in the NFL. Jackson, the league's fifth-leading receiver, has yet to find pay dirt this season. But he has scored three touchdowns and averaged 120 yards per game in three career meetings with New England.
Week Two Analysis:
Josh Freeman was fixated on Vincent Jackson last week against the Jets, giving him 42% of his targets. He didn't hit pay dirt, but V-Jax had four catches of 20-plus yards and finished with 154 on the day. Against the Saints at home last year, he exploded for seven catches, 216 yards, and a touchdown. New Orleans' defense looks somewhat improved from last year's suck-tacular squad but they are still susceptible to allowing big games. Jackson averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game at home last season, and that's a reasonable floor for what can be expected on Sunday.
Week One Analysis:
Jacksonville was more than generous to opposing running backs last year. But they held their own against the pass considering how often their defense was on the field. There has been massive turnover at cornerback though. Derek Cox, Aaron Ross, and Rashean Mathis are now playing elsewhere. Key replacements that were brought in are Dwayne Gratz and Alan Ball. Gratz is a third round rookie and Ball only saw 98 defensive snaps last season. Rookie Johnathan Cyprien will also start at strong safety, rounding-out a young unit that will surely need time to gel. Dwayne Bowe has thrived on the road in his career, averaging 72.5 yards per game versus 57.6 at Arrowhead, and has scored two touchdowns in three career games against the Jaguars. He's virtually the only receiving option not coming out of the backfield, and big play opportunities should present themselves in Andy Reid's west coast scheme.
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