Week Fourteen Analysis:
On Monday night, in the biggest regular season game of his career, Russell Wilson posted one of the most dominating performances of his career. But, will he have a letdown in a road game after the Monday nighter? Can he improve on his lousy numbers from his first matchup with the Niners? Let's answer those questions. In the first matchup, he posted just 142 yards and one score. And that was at home. Now he's on the road, where, over his career, he's good for a full touchdown less per game. But, he's breaking that trend, with four straight multiple touchdown games on the road. So, let's assume that the road differential isn't so great. The bigger problem is a very good Niners secondary. Over their past five games, the Niners have only allowed three passing touchdowns. And, San Francisco is allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards. It's a very tough matchup, with a very real chance of an emotional letdown. Show caution.
Week Thirteen Analysis:
The Saints defensive turnaround is jaw dropping. Just one year ago, it was historically bad, especially against the pass. Now, we're looking at a worrisome start for Russell Wilson. At home, no less. Why worry? Because the Saints have shut down good passers, especially of late. Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan combined for two touchdowns against the Saints over the past six weeks. They're giving up less than one touchdown pass per game since the opener. Russell Wilson has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games, and gets to fully unfurl the talents of Percy Harvin this week. It's a tricky matchup, for sure.
Week Eleven Analysis:
After a slow start to the season, Russell Wilson has been very reliable for a month. Over the last four games, Wilson has scored multiple touchdowns in every game, and he continues to chip in 40ish yards on the ground. This week, Wilson is at home, where he's averaged two touchdown passes per game over his career. That feels like his absolute floor this week against one of the leakier secondaries in the league. Minnesota has allowed multiple touchdown in seven of nine games. Plus, Wilson should get Percy Harvin onto the field for the first time, and Harvin will be highly motivated to destroy his former team.
Week Ten Analysis:
Seattle has now played five of their past seven games on the road. Until recently, that meant that Russell Wilson was going to be a dicey start. But Wilson has reversed course, and improved his road starts with three straight multiple-touchdown away games. And, working well with that stat, the Atlanta defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to score multiple touchdowns in every game this year. So this sure feels like a nearly certain multiple touchdown game for Wilson. He has now scored 3, 2, and 3 touchdowns over the last three games, after a slow start to the year.
Week Nine Analysis:
I've talked a lot about Russell Wilson's home-road differential. Throughout his career, he's been good for about an extra touchdown in home games, where the Seahawks have the NFL's best home field advantage. So far this year, it's been predominatintly road games. It's week nine, and they've played three games at home. Four of the last five games have been on the road. Finally Russ heads home, and gets to take on the faltering Tampa secondary. The Bucs have been killed by opposing quarterbacks over the past three weeks. Nick Foles scored four times. Matt Ryan scored three times (with his starting wideouts, no less), and Cam Newton scored three times last week. If Foles and Newton can rush in touchdowns, it bodes well for the NFL's leading quarterback rusher, Wilson.
Week Eight Analysis:
Your league leader in quarterback rushing yards is Russell Wilson, who's coming in at about 46 yards on the ground per week. He's a threat in many ways, much like his favorite target that he's never thrown a pass to, Percy Harvin. While Harvin's status is still up in the air this week, Wilson is a sure fire start against a Rams team that has given up 30 or more points four times this season. St. Louis has faced T.J. Yates and Blaine Gabbert in the last three weeks, and still, the Jags and Texans quarterbacks combined for over 270 yards against them. Wilson saw these Rams last year, when they were playing better defense, and still piled up 250 passing yards, and a touchdown via the air and another on the ground.
Week Seven Analysis:
I always get nervous about starting Russell Wilson on the road, where he's good for a full touchdown less per game than at home over his career. In his three road games this year, he's scored three times, and averaged a crappy 215 passing yards. I also don't care for the short week; we've seen a lot of crummy Thursday night games. Fortunately, the Arizona secondary has been pretty wobbly. Only Mike Glennon, in his first NFL start, failed to post a solid game against the Cardinals. Every other quarterback has thrown multiple touchdowns and/or topped 300 yards.
Week Six Analysis:
It's a home game for Russell Wilson, which almost automatically makes him startable. No quarterback is more prone to home-road differentiation than Wilson. Historically, he's good for almost twice the fantasy production in the confines of Seattle's massive home field advantage. Over his career he's posted 2.3 touchdowns per home game, and only 1.3 in road games. Tennesee's secondary is pretty good, especially cornerback Alteraun Verner. But, they've given up four passing touchdowns in their two road games. All signs point to a multiple touchdown home game for Wilson.
Week Four Analysis:
Last week, the Seattle quarterback position blew up, giving owners a stunning five passing touchdowns and a rushing score. Tragically, Russell Wilson was out of the game early in the third quarter, and his owners had to "settle" for four touchdowns and 202 yards. Sadly, Wilson can't play the Jaguars every game. Quite the opposite this week, as Wilson faces a Houston secondary that is giving up the second fewest passing yards per game, just 171 per game. Last week Houston held Joe Flacco to nine completions. That doesn't make me feel great about Wilson in this game. What's more, this game is on the road, where Russell Wilson has thrown half as many touchdowns, and twice as many picks.
Week Three Analysis:
After two very tough matchups, Russell Wilson should finally show his upside in this matchup with the league's worst team, Jacksonville. My only worry is Jaguars' head coach Gus Bradley's familiarity with Wilson. As Seattle's defensive coordinator last year, he saw an awful lot of practice against Wilson, and may hold some secrets to taming the Seattle offense. Also, Wilson's left tackle, Russell Okung, will miss the game a toe injury. Those caveats aside, it's all systems go for Wilson against a rebuilt secondary that has only seen Terrelle Pryor and Alex Smith so far this year.
Week Two Analysis:
Last week, I told you that I was worried about Russell Wilson's fantasy production in a cross country game against a tough defense. Wilson played really well, completing 76% of his passes, and throwing for 320 yards. But, his one touchdown was exactly what I feared. I'm feeling a lot better about Sunday's night's home game against the Niners. Last Sunday, Aaron Rodgers riddled this pass defense for 333 yards and three scores, exposing a new-look secondary featuring Philly castoff Nnamdi Asomugha and the gambling Carlos Rodgers. He faced this same team just three games ago, week 16 of last year, and threw four touchdowns, so I like him to return to scoring multiple touchdowns, as he had in 9 of his previous 11 games.
Week One Analysis:
I like Russell Wilson a lot, and I'm expecting big things this year. But this is a tricky draw for the first game of his sophomore year. Carolina's front seven are really good, and they'll get a lot of pressure on Russell Wilson. The Seattle offensive line looked unusually leaky in the preseason, and they'll have their hands full. In 16 games last year, only five quarterbacks managed more than one touchdown against the Panthers. Russell Wilson wasn't among them. He faced Carolina in week five, and posted just 221 yards and one score. He'll top that yardage number, but I'm not sure he'll top the touchdown number, and I highly doubt we'll see an explosive game.
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There aren't many second year quarterbacks that find themselves with a top-10 fantasy ranking, but Russell Wilson is the exception, and I believe he'll live up to it. The Seahawks took off his reigns in the second half of last season, and Wilson's fantasy productivity exploded. If you extrapolate his final eight regular season games to a full year, you're looking at a 3300 yard passer with 32 passing touchdowns, 725 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. How good are those numbers? They're the same or better than what Cam Newton did last year, both passing and rushing, in a year in which Newton was a top-five quarterback in most scoring systems. There is some concern however. With Percy Harvin's hip keeping him out until around Thanksgiving, Wilson won't have his new weapon until then.
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