Week Seventeen Analysis: Russell Wilson has been fantastic, emerging as a viable Rookie Of The Year candidate despite overwhelming competition from Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in a whopping seven of last eight games. That includes his crazy eight touchdowns in the last two weeks. He's reaching matchup proof status, and surprisingly, he needs it against a vastly improved Rams secondary. No quarterback has managed more than one touchdown against the Rams in the entire second half of the season. Granted, they've played a lot of crappy quarterbacks, of the Ponder-Fitzpatric-Lindley ilk, but still, only three teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns, and Wilson was held to just 160 yards and zero scores in the first matchup.
Week Sixteen Analysis: Those of you that cashed in on the point bonanza from Russell Wilson yesterday are feeling pretty good, but do you dare roll the dice in consecutive weeks with the Niners coming to town? First, let's not confuse Wilson's three rushing touchdowns with passing scores. He's a very good runner, but he hadn't scored a single rushing touchdown prior to last Sunday. You can't count on even one of those. And, the Niners are a very good pass defense, as you saw in the first half of their game against Tom Brady last Sunday night. Only four opposing quarterbacks have topped one touchdown pass against the Niners. Wilson is not one of those four. In the earlier matchup he was hammered for a season-worst 122 yards and zero scores. This game is at home, which is always better for him, but still, beware.
Week Fifteen Analysis: Fantasy owners have developed a Pavlovian response to starting quarterbacks against the Bills secondary. They've been awful for years, and they were brutal for the first five games of this year. But, in week six the Arizona passing game became Buffalo's slumpbuster. Since then, they've played eight games and only Tom Brady and Matt Schaub managed more than one touchdown, and they only got two each. What's more, since then, opposing quarterbacks, including Brady and Schaub, are averaging just 210 passing yards per game against Buffalo. Russell Wilson has been good for multiple scores in five of his last six games, but he's not the sneaky fantasy lock that people might think.
Week Twelve Analysis: Prior to last week's bye, Russell Wilson had posted three consecutive strong fantasy games, scoring multiple times in all three outings. His yardage remains pedestrian, as the Seahawks continue to be a run-first offense, but Miami's lousy secondary could change that. They're just two games removed from allowing another rookie, Andrew Luck, to throw for 433 yards. Seven different quarterbacks have thrown for at least 266 yards, and five have topped 300 yards against the Dolphins, so we might get both scores and yards from Wilson.
Week Ten Add: Very tough remaining schedule, including the Jets next week, following by a bye, and the Bears in four weeks. But, he's got two highly favorable matchups left, when he can be a top five fantasy point producer. In week 12 he'll play Miami's awful secondary, and he'll likely be in my top 10 that week. And, in week 15, the semi-finals for most leagues, he'll play Buffalo, and he'll scoop whatever chips Marshawn Lynch leaves behind. He's worth a $4 bid.
Week Five Drop: Cupcakes against the Rams are supposed to give a young quarterback confidence. Instead, Russell Wilson looked skiddish last week, as he was pressured frequently. He threw three picks, with one-and-a-half of them squarely on his shoulders. The Seahawks' coaches are taking him along slowly, with high-percentage stuff, which just doesn't fill up a box score. In time, Wilson might be a capable fantasy quarterback, but it's going to be a while.