What's in a target? For some plenty

What's in a target? For some plenty

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Flickr Creative Commons/Brian J. McDermott Flickr Creative Commons/Brian J. McDermott

I am a self admitted statistical geek and so it should come as no surprise that I over analyze everything fantasy football related.

With league passing records being shattered, it is amazing to think that there were only three receivers who caught more than 10 touchdowns last season. Think about that…three. Those three names, Calvin Johnson (17), Jordy Nelson (15) and Laurent Robinson (11), yes that Laurent Robinson. While Charch has Johnson ranked #1 and Nelson #3, Robinson has switched teams and conferences and finds himself buried at number 44.

So much of fantasy victory is about getting the middle of your draft right and hitting on a couple of guys that mix in with your studs taken at the top of your drafts. So, should you look for the bigger name? Not so fast my fantasy friends, take a look at how much the receiver was targeted in the past in making your decision on late wide receivers.

Brandon Marshall was targeted 142 times in Miami and he cashed in on 82 catches for 1200+ yards and six touchdowns. Think of what he can do with a real quarterback in Chicago. Add to that, the two already have chemistry from their days in Denver and it could be a fantasy dream in the windy city.

The tag team of Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas were targeted a combined 166 times, yet were at the bottom of the statistical category of receiving percentage with 46.81 and 45.71 percent respectively. How are they now the 17th and 18th ranked receivers? They now have a real NFL quarterback in Peyton Manning throwing them the ball.

As we go deep into Charch's rankings, a couple of Nate's are ranked 61st and 63rd. Washington was targeted 121 times last year and made 74 catches for 1,023 yards and seven scores. Burleson was targeted 110 times and made 73 catches for 757 yards and three touchdowns. So why no love for Washington who had better numbers than receivers ranked in the 20's?

Brandon Lloyd had 70 catches between the Broncos and the Rams last year while being targeted 150 times. Now with the Patriots, Lloyd could have his best statistical season of his career. Then again, he will be fighting for balls against Wes Welker, Gronk and Aaron Hernandez.

Outside of Charch's current top 30 receivers, there are nine players who were targeted over 100 times last season.

Vincent Jackson (#1 receiver in Tampa Bay)
Greg Little (#1 receiver in Cleveland)
Michael Crabtree (#2 receiver in San Francisco)
Anquan Boldin (#2 receiver in Baltimore)
Jerome Simpson* (#3 receiver in Minnesota)
Mike Williams (#2 receiver in Tampa Bay)
Darrius Heyward Bey (#2 receiver in Oakland)
Nate Washington (#3 receiver in Tennessee)
Nate Burleson (#3 receiver in Detroit)

* Suspended for first three games

All of the above mentioned will see plenty of time on the field and are all candidates to be taken later in your drafts.

At any rate, enjoy the graph below and come to your own conclusions of guys you feel you can target (pun intended) later in your draft.



Targets Rec Yds TD %
1 Calvin Johnson 158 96 1,681 16 60.76%
2 Julio Jones 95 54 959 8 56.84%
3 Jordy Nelson 95 68 1,263 15 71.58%
4 Victor Cruz 131 82 1,536 9 62.60%
5 Roddy White 179 100 1,296 8 55.87%
6 Larry Fitzgerald 154 80 1,411 8 51.95%
7 AJ Green 115 65 1,057 7 56.52%
8 Greg Jennings 101 67 949 9 66.34%
9 Hakeem Nicks 132 75 1,169 7 56.82%
10 Jeremy Maclin 96 63 859 5 65.63%
11 Wes Welker 173 122 1,569 9 70.52%
12 Miles Austin 73 43 579 7 58.90%
13 Brandon Marshall 142 82 1,227 6 57.75%
14 Percy Harvin 120 87 967 6 72.50%
15 Dwayne Bowe 142 81 1,159 5 57.04%
16 Andre Johnson 51 33 492 2 64.71%
17 Demaryius Thomas 70 32 551 4 45.71%
18 Eric Decker 94 44 612 8 46.81%
19 Steve Smith 129 79 1,394 7 61.24%
20 Dez Bryant 103 63 928 9 61.17%
21 Marques Colston 107 80 1,143 8 74.77%
22 Antonio Brown 124 69 1,108 2 55.65%
23 Steve Johnson 134 76 1,004 7 56.72%
24 Mike Wallace 114 72 1,193 8 63.16%
25 DeSean Jackson 104 58 964 4 55.77%
26 Reggie Wayne 132 75 960 4 56.82%
27 Brandon Lloyd 150 70 966 5 46.67%
28 Pierre Garcon 134 70 947 6 52.24%
29 Denarius Moore 76 33 618 5 43.42%
30 Santonio Holmes 101 51 654 8 50.50%
31 Vincent Jackson 115 60 1,106 9 52.17%
32 Kendall Wright 0 0 0 0 Rookie
33 Robert Meachem 60 40 620 6 66.67%
34 Torrey Smith 95 50 841 7 52.63%
35 Titus Young 85 48 607 6 56.47%
36 Austin Collie 96 54 514 1 56.25%
37 Randy Moss 0 0 0 0 DNP
38 Malcom Floyd 70 43 856 5 61.43%
39 Josh Gordon 20 15 220 1 75.00%
40 Justin Blackmon 0 0 0 0 Rookie
41 Greg Little 120 61 709 2 50.83%
42 Rueben Randle 0 0 0 0 Rookie
43 Santana Moss 95 46 584 4 48.42%
44 Laurent Robinson 80 54 858 11 67.50%
45 Michael Crabtree 115 73 880 4 63.48%
46 Anquan Boldin 106 57 887 3 53.77%
47 Jerome Simpson 105 50 725 4 47.62%
48 Doug Baldwin 85 51 788 4 60.00%
49 Randall Cobb 30 24 369 1 80.00%
50 Danny Amendola 6 5 45 0 83.33%
51 Lance Moore 73 52 627 8 71.23%
52 Davonne Bess 85 51 537 3 60.00%
53 Kenny Britt 26 17 289 3 65.38%
54 David Nelson 97 61 658 5 62.89%
55 Sidney Rice 57 32 484 2 56.14%
56 Mike Williams 124 65 771 3 52.42%
57 Leonard Hankerson 19 13 163 0 68.42%
58 Emmanuel Sanders 43 22 288 2 51.16%
59 Darrius Heyward Bey 115 64 975 4 55.65%
60 Keyshawn Martin 0 0 0 0 Rookie
61 Nate Washington 121 74 1,023 7 61.16%
62 Jonathan Baldwin 52 21 254 1 40.38%
63 Nate Burleson 110 73 757 3 66.36%
64 Mario Manningham 77 39 523 4 50.65%
65 Stephen Hill 0 0 0 0 Rookie
66 Michael Floyd 0 0 0 0 Rookie
67 Jacoby Ford 33 19 279 1 57.58%

 

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