I am a self admitted statistical geek and so it should come as no surprise that I over analyze everything fantasy football related.
With league passing records being shattered, it is amazing to think that there were only three receivers who caught more than 10 touchdowns last season. Think about that…three. Those three names, Calvin Johnson (17), Jordy Nelson (15) and Laurent Robinson (11), yes that Laurent Robinson. While Charch has Johnson ranked #1 and Nelson #3, Robinson has switched teams and conferences and finds himself buried at number 44.
So much of fantasy victory is about getting the middle of your draft right and hitting on a couple of guys that mix in with your studs taken at the top of your drafts. So, should you look for the bigger name? Not so fast my fantasy friends, take a look at how much the receiver was targeted in the past in making your decision on late wide receivers.
Brandon Marshall was targeted 142 times in Miami and he cashed in on 82 catches for 1200+ yards and six touchdowns. Think of what he can do with a real quarterback in Chicago. Add to that, the two already have chemistry from their days in Denver and it could be a fantasy dream in the windy city.
The tag team of Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas were targeted a combined 166 times, yet were at the bottom of the statistical category of receiving percentage with 46.81 and 45.71 percent respectively. How are they now the 17th and 18th ranked receivers? They now have a real NFL quarterback in Peyton Manning throwing them the ball.
As we go deep into Charch's rankings, a couple of Nate's are ranked 61st and 63rd. Washington was targeted 121 times last year and made 74 catches for 1,023 yards and seven scores. Burleson was targeted 110 times and made 73 catches for 757 yards and three touchdowns. So why no love for Washington who had better numbers than receivers ranked in the 20's?
Brandon Lloyd had 70 catches between the Broncos and the Rams last year while being targeted 150 times. Now with the Patriots, Lloyd could have his best statistical season of his career. Then again, he will be fighting for balls against Wes Welker, Gronk and Aaron Hernandez.
Outside of Charch's current top 30 receivers, there are nine players who were targeted over 100 times last season.
Vincent Jackson (#1 receiver in Tampa Bay)
Greg Little (#1 receiver in Cleveland)
Michael Crabtree (#2 receiver in San Francisco)
Anquan Boldin (#2 receiver in Baltimore)
Jerome Simpson* (#3 receiver in Minnesota)
Mike Williams (#2 receiver in Tampa Bay)
Darrius Heyward Bey (#2 receiver in Oakland)
Nate Washington (#3 receiver in Tennessee)
Nate Burleson (#3 receiver in Detroit)
* Suspended for first three games
All of the above mentioned will see plenty of time on the field and are all candidates to be taken later in your drafts.
At any rate, enjoy the graph below and come to your own conclusions of guys you feel you can target (pun intended) later in your draft.
|59||Darrius Heyward Bey||115||64||975||4||55.65%|