What's in a target? For some plenty

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By Doug Erlien - email

Flickr Creative Commons/Brian J. McDermott

I am a self admitted statistical geek and so it should come as no surprise that I over analyze everything fantasy football related.

With league passing records being shattered, it is amazing to think that there were only three receivers who caught more than 10 touchdowns last season. Think about that…three. Those three names, Calvin Johnson (17), Jordy Nelson (15) and Laurent Robinson (11), yes that Laurent Robinson. While Charch has Johnson ranked #1 and Nelson #3, Robinson has switched teams and conferences and finds himself buried at number 44.

So much of fantasy victory is about getting the middle of your draft right and hitting on a couple of guys that mix in with your studs taken at the top of your drafts. So, should you look for the bigger name? Not so fast my fantasy friends, take a look at how much the receiver was targeted in the past in making your decision on late wide receivers.

Brandon Marshall was targeted 142 times in Miami and he cashed in on 82 catches for 1200+ yards and six touchdowns. Think of what he can do with a real quarterback in Chicago. Add to that, the two already have chemistry from their days in Denver and it could be a fantasy dream in the windy city.

The tag team of Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas were targeted a combined 166 times, yet were at the bottom of the statistical category of receiving percentage with 46.81 and 45.71 percent respectively. How are they now the 17^th and 18^th ranked receivers? They now have a real NFL quarterback in Peyton Manning throwing them the ball.

As we go deep into Charch's rankings, a couple of Nate's are ranked 61^st and 63^rd. Washington was targeted 121 times last year and made 74 catches for 1,023 yards and seven scores. Burleson was targeted 110 times and made 73 catches for 757 yards and three touchdowns. So why no love for Washington who had better numbers than receivers ranked in the 20's?

Brandon Lloyd had 70 catches between the Broncos and the Rams last year while being targeted 150 times. Now with the Patriots, Lloyd could have his best statistical season of his career. Then again, he will be fighting for balls against Wes Welker, Gronk and Aaron Hernandez.

Outside of Charch's current top 30 receivers, there are nine players who were targeted over 100 times last season.

Vincent Jackson (#1 receiver in Tampa Bay)
Greg Little (#1 receiver in Cleveland)
Michael Crabtree (#2 receiver in San Francisco)
Anquan Boldin (#2 receiver in Baltimore)
Jerome Simpson* (#3 receiver in Minnesota)
Mike Williams (#2 receiver in Tampa Bay)
Darrius Heyward Bey (#2 receiver in Oakland)
Nate Washington (#3 receiver in Tennessee)
Nate Burleson (#3 receiver in Detroit)

* Suspended for first three games

All of the above mentioned will see plenty of time on the field and are all candidates to be taken later in your drafts.

At any rate, enjoy the graph below and come to your own conclusions of guys you feel you can target (pun intended) later in your draft.

		Targets	Rec	Yds	TD	%
1	Calvin Johnson	158	96	1,681	16	60.76%
2	Julio Jones	95	54	959	8	56.84%
3	Jordy Nelson	95	68	1,263	15	71.58%
4	Victor Cruz	131	82	1,536	9	62.60%
5	Roddy White	179	100	1,296	8	55.87%
6	Larry Fitzgerald	154	80	1,411	8	51.95%
7	AJ Green	115	65	1,057	7	56.52%
8	Greg Jennings	101	67	949	9	66.34%
9	Hakeem Nicks	132	75	1,169	7	56.82%
10	Jeremy Maclin	96	63	859	5	65.63%
11	Wes Welker	173	122	1,569	9	70.52%
12	Miles Austin	73	43	579	7	58.90%
13	Brandon Marshall	142	82	1,227	6	57.75%
14	Percy Harvin	120	87	967	6	72.50%
15	Dwayne Bowe	142	81	1,159	5	57.04%
16	Andre Johnson	51	33	492	2	64.71%
17	Demaryius Thomas	70	32	551	4	45.71%
18	Eric Decker	94	44	612	8	46.81%
19	Steve Smith	129	79	1,394	7	61.24%
20	Dez Bryant	103	63	928	9	61.17%
21	Marques Colston	107	80	1,143	8	74.77%
22	Antonio Brown	124	69	1,108	2	55.65%
23	Steve Johnson	134	76	1,004	7	56.72%
24	Mike Wallace	114	72	1,193	8	63.16%
25	DeSean Jackson	104	58	964	4	55.77%
26	Reggie Wayne	132	75	960	4	56.82%
27	Brandon Lloyd	150	70	966	5	46.67%
28	Pierre Garcon	134	70	947	6	52.24%
29	Denarius Moore	76	33	618	5	43.42%
30	Santonio Holmes	101	51	654	8	50.50%
31	Vincent Jackson	115	60	1,106	9	52.17%
32	Kendall Wright	0	0	0	0	Rookie
33	Robert Meachem	60	40	620	6	66.67%
34	Torrey Smith	95	50	841	7	52.63%
35	Titus Young	85	48	607	6	56.47%
36	Austin Collie	96	54	514	1	56.25%
37	Randy Moss	0	0	0	0	DNP
38	Malcom Floyd	70	43	856	5	61.43%
39	Josh Gordon	20	15	220	1	75.00%
40	Justin Blackmon	0	0	0	0	Rookie
41	Greg Little	120	61	709	2	50.83%
42	Rueben Randle	0	0	0	0	Rookie
43	Santana Moss	95	46	584	4	48.42%
44	Laurent Robinson	80	54	858	11	67.50%
45	Michael Crabtree	115	73	880	4	63.48%
46	Anquan Boldin	106	57	887	3	53.77%
47	Jerome Simpson	105	50	725	4	47.62%
48	Doug Baldwin	85	51	788	4	60.00%
49	Randall Cobb	30	24	369	1	80.00%
50	Danny Amendola	6	5	45	0	83.33%
51	Lance Moore	73	52	627	8	71.23%
52	Davonne Bess	85	51	537	3	60.00%
53	Kenny Britt	26	17	289	3	65.38%
54	David Nelson	97	61	658	5	62.89%
55	Sidney Rice	57	32	484	2	56.14%
56	Mike Williams	124	65	771	3	52.42%
57	Leonard Hankerson	19	13	163	0	68.42%
58	Emmanuel Sanders	43	22	288	2	51.16%
59	Darrius Heyward Bey	115	64	975	4	55.65%
60	Keyshawn Martin	0	0	0	0	Rookie
61	Nate Washington	121	74	1,023	7	61.16%
62	Jonathan Baldwin	52	21	254	1	40.38%
63	Nate Burleson	110	73	757	3	66.36%
64	Mario Manningham	77	39	523	4	50.65%
65	Stephen Hill	0	0	0	0	Rookie
66	Michael Floyd	0	0	0	0	Rookie
67	Jacoby Ford	33	19	279	1	57.58%