Week Seventeen Analysis:
Last week C.J. Spiller hit the 20-carry mark for the first time in his last 10 games, and over his last five games, he's out-carried Fred Jackson 72-to-64. Unfortunately, he's scored just once in his last nine games, and he's only topped 70 combo yards in three of those nine, so he comes with significant risk. The Patriots have surrendered an average of 147 combo yards and a score to opposing backfields over their past five games, so this is a strong matchup for a wobbly committee back.
Week Fourteen Analysis:
In addition to the ever-present Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller's ongoing ankle issues have made him downright impossible to predict. In his last four games, he's cracked 150 combo yards twice, and fallen shy of 40 combo yards twice. He's coming off his best outing of the year, which included his first touchdown in six games, but it came against Atlanta's powder puff defense, and he was visibly gimpy on the sidelines throughout. Tampa Bay is a neutral opponent in terms of yardage, and they've only given up one score to the position in their last five games. All things considered, Spiller is a boom-or-bust option who's ideal for postseason underdogs.
Week Thirteen Analysis:
C.J. Spiller has totaled fewer than 35 scoreless combo yards in three of his last four games, but there are two things working in his favor this week. First, he's coming off a desperately needed bye, so his ankle should be in relatively good shape. Second, he gets to play Atlanta. In their last four games, the Falcons' 30th-ranked run defense has given up at least 160 combo yards and a score to Andre Ellington, Marshawn Lynch and Bobby Rainey. The Falcons have allowed a league-worst four rushes of at least 40 yards, so while Fred Jackson has earned the nod between the Buffalo backs, don't rule out a homerun for Spiller.
Week Eleven Analysis:
Spiller elevated to #24 in Charch's rankings on Sunday morning November 17th.
Week Ten Analysis:
In addition to Fred Jackson's ever-steady production, C.J. Spiller's ongoing ankle issues have made his weekly effectiveness impossible to gauge. Although he's coming off a season-best 155 combo yards, he clearly aggravated the injury on multiple occasions against the Chiefs. Ultimately, he hasn't topped 12 carries in any of his last four games, and he hasn't scored in his last three. With that said, Pittsburgh's 29th-ranked run defense has allowed a league-worst 12 touchdowns to the position, including five in the last two weeks, so Spiller is worth the risk. Just be sure to monitor his practice participation.
Week Seven Analysis:
C.J. Spiller is still dealing with a lingering ankle injury, but that hasn't stopped him from running for 6.7 yards per carry over the last two weeks. Unfortunately, that two-game average has come on just 18 total carries, as Fred Jackson continues to shoulder over half the workload. Miami is a middle-of-the-road run defense, but they rank 31st against opposing backs in the passing game, and they've surrendered over a touchdown per game to the position. However, receptions and touchdowns have been Jackson's specialty, as Spiller has totaled just three catches in his last four games, and scored just once all season. He remains a boom-or-bust proposition.
Week Six Analysis:
C.J. Spiller finally joined the party last week, scoring for the first time. Unfortunately, he was still visibly gimpy, and he totaled 12 yards on his other seven carries. Meanwhile, Fred Jackson continued to dominate the workload with 21 touches for 93 combo yards and two scores. Spiller has only contributed one catch for one yard over the last three weeks, so there's really nothing to hang your hat on here. Against opposing backs, the Bengals do an above-average job in all facets, so until further notice, Spiller is just a boom-or-bust fantasy option.
Week Four Analysis:
C.J. Spiller is still nursing a quad injury that cost him a little over a quarter of work last week, but it's his fantasy owners who are really hurting. After rushing for a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry on over 200 attempts last season, he's currently running at a 3.6-yard per carry clip. Meanwhile, 32-year old Fred Jackson has been flexing his man muscles, rolling up 5.3 yards per carry, and also besting Spiller in touchdowns, rushing yardage, receiving yardage and receptions. Baltimore is only allowing 3.5 yards per carry to the position, and they've yet to surrender a running back touchdown. It's hard to find a positive spin for this one.
Week Three Analysis:
Through two weeks, C.J. Spiller has only out-carried Fred Jackson 33-to-25. But, Jackson has sniped eight catches and a short touchdown from Spiller, so contrary to everything Doug Marrone told us in August, we're looking at a full-blown timeshare. Spiller has cracked 100 combo yards in four of his last five games, and he averaged a 163 combo yards and a score in his two meetings with the Jets last year. However, everything has changed. He's now sharing a huge chunk of the production, and the Jets have surrendered just 2.6 yards per carry and a total of three receiving yards to opposing backs. It's a tricky matchup for Spiller.
Week Two Analysis:
C.J. Spiller was selected 122 spots ahead of Fred Jackson in August mock drafts, but the 32-year old just refuses to go away. Jackson totaled 108 combo yards on 17 touches against New England in the opener, while Spiller lost a fumble and managed half as many yards on five more carries. Coming off a 6.0-yard per carry season, Spiller's 2.4 yards per carry against the Patriots marked his worst effort in his last 23 games. He'll look to get going this week against a talented Carolina front seven that just put the typically matchup-proof Marshawn Lynch on a 43-yard clunker. You're still starting your stud, but temper expectations.
Week One Analysis:
Despite sparing usage, the electric C.J. Spiller has scored and/or topped 100 combo yards in 16 of his last 19 contests, dating back to the end of the 2011 season. He racked up 131 combo yards on just 13 touches in the second meeting with New England's stout run defense last season, and he could easily double that workload in the opener. Unfortunately, all of Boston will be keyed on him, as Jeff Tuel is set to become the first undrafted free agent rookie quarterback of the modern era to start a season opener. Spiller is unlikely to deliver his 6.0-yard per carry efficiency of a year ago, but the extra touches could make up for it.
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C.J. Spiller's 1,244 rushing yards last season ranked eighth in the NFL, which is crazy-impressive considering that his 207 attempts ranked 22nd. His electric 6.0-yard per carry average tied Adrian Peterson, and he finished second to Peterson with 12 carries of at least 20 yards. Spiller also ranked 6th in receiving yards among backs, and that dual threat ability lead to remarkable consistency despite spotty usage—Spiller scored and/or topped 100 combo yards in 13 of 16 games. Fred Jackson is a year older, Chan Gailey has been put out to pasture, and Spiller will be the centerpiece of new head coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo offense. There's nothing but upside here.
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