Week Sixteen Analysis: Andrew Luck's play the past few games hasn't been great, as he's completing just 46% of his passes over the last three weeks, and has failed to top 196 yards in two straight games. But, still, he's been a mostly-safe fantasy starter, and remains so this week against the Chiefs. They're a defense that hasn't allowed a passing touchdown in two weeks, although there's an asterisk there as they've faced Brandon Weeden and Carson Palmer, two inconsistent passers. Prior to facing those guys, they were getting killed, allowing multiple touchdowns to 10 of 12 quarterbacks. The Colts offense is a lot better than Cleveland's or Oakland's, and I expect another two touchdown performance from Luck.
Week Fifteen Analysis: It's fair to start asking some hard questions about the Houston secondary. Even with star corner Johnathan Joseph back in the lineup, they were bludgeoned by Brady on Monday night, making it four straight disastrous games for their secondary. The average QB line against Houston over the past month looks like this: 356 yards and 2.75 touchdowns. That's brutal. Andrew Luck comes into the game with a disappointing effort against a lousy Titans secondary last week, and a similarly disappointing game against the crappy Bills three weeks ago. Houston's secondary is better than what they've shown lately, and Luck is better than what he's shown, too. Those diverging trends make it tough, but I'm leaning toward giving the advantage to Luck.
Week Fourteen Analysis: In his last five games, Andrew Luck is averaging 325 yards per game, has thrown for nine touchdowns and ran in two scores. As if that wasn't enough, Luck has now led the Colts to five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this season, which is tied with Vince Young and Ben Roethlisberger for the most ever by a rookie signal-caller. We'll see if the rookie can inch even closer to a playoff spot this week against Tennessee. The Titans have only allowed two quarterbacks to top 296 yards this season and one of them was Luck in Week 8. More importantly though, the Titans have given up a ton of passing scores. Nine of the 12 starting quarterbacks the Titans have faced have thrown for multiple touchdown passes.
Week Thirteen Analysis: I expected a little more fireworks from Andrew Luck against the Bills last week, but hopefully he'll make up for it this week against a middle-of-the-road Detroit secondary. Yes, I said they're average, which might be better than you think. The Lions haven't allowed more than two touchdowns passes in a game all year. They rank 12th in passing yards allowed, and 15th in passing touchdowns allowed. And Luck, for all his accolades, hasn't thrown for more than two scores in a game all year. Detroit has allowed exactly two scores in four of the past five games, and Luck has scored exactly two touchdowns in three of the past four games. So, let's safely call it two touchdowns.
Week Twelve Analysis: Via air or ground, Andrew Luck has now found his way to two or more touchdowns in a very impressive seven of his last nine games. He's topped 280 passing yards in seven games, including the 334 he posted last week. Despite being a rookie, he's turned into one of the most reliable fantasy producers around. The once-brutal Bills secondary has made some statistical strides over the past five games, but they've also played Ryan Tannehill, Matt Hasselbeck and Kevin Kolb over that stretch, so I'm not ready to change my optimistic opinion of Luck's chances this week.
Week Eleven Analysis: By air or by land, Andrew Luck is getting it done for his owners, and this week will be no different as he faces one of the worst secondaries in the league. New England ranks 29th against passing yardage, and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed. Every opposing quarterback has thrown at least one touchdown, and over half of their opponents have topped 325 yards. Luck will throw a lot of passes as he tries to keep pace with Tom Brady, and I fully expect big numbers.
Week Ten Analysis: Andrew Luck just posted the best game of his rookie season, setting the all-time high water mark with 433 passing yards against Miami. Now he faces Jacksonville, a team he's already seen, and played well against. And since then, he's only gotten better. As for the Jaguars, they're a very flawed team, but they're not half bad against the pass, despite a lot of injuries of late. Over the past three weeks, they've held Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford to a combined three touchdowns. And only one quarterback has hit the 300-yard plateau all year. Who? Andrew Luck.
Week Nine Analysis: No team has faced a worse set of quarterbacks than the Dolphins. They haven't played division rival New England yet, so they haven't faced Tom Brady. Instead they've had the likes of Mark Sanchez (twice), Kevin Kolb, and Sam Bradford. Yet, they still rank 29th against the pass. Andrew Luck's passing has been just okay the past few weeks, but this matchup feels highly exploitable. I'm rolling the dice on him to perform better than his past few performances.
Week Eight Analysis: Against a lousy Cleveland defense last week, I expected multiple touchdowns from Andrew Luck. And he delivered. But, not through the air. He ran in two scores, which salvaged his worst passing performance of the year. Fortunately, the Titans defense steadfastly refuses to slow down opposing quarterback as they run neck-and-neck with the Redskins for the honor of the league's worst secondary. Every opposing team has posted monster passing games including inconsistent throwers like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Christian Ponder. I fully expect Luck to bounce back with a much stronger game from his arm than his legs.
Week Seven Analysis: The Colts are throwing Andrew Luck's arm out of socket. He's attempted 44 or more passes in every game but one. And it working. He's thrown multiple touchdowns and/or topped 300 yards in every game but one. The Browns defense welcomed back superstar cornerback Joe Haden last week, but his best efforts didn't improve their miserable pass defense, as they allowed their worst passing game of the season. Cleveland has now allowed the most passing touchdowns. Haden isn't enough to save the Browns from a barrage of Luck passes, and a potentially a very big day.
Week Five Analysis: Andrew Luck's introduction to the NFL has gone as well as reasonably hoped. He's faced three middle-to-good pass defenses, and walked away with two 300-yard games and two multiple-touchdown games. That's pretty impressive. He figures to throw a lot against a high octane Packers offense that could easily stake an early lead. But will he be effective? The Packers pass defense looks much improved this year, in part because their pass rush is so much better. They currently rank fourth in sacks. Worse, the Colts offensive line remains tattered, and Luck will be on the run often. Still, he'll throw a lot of passes, and he's got some upside if he can stay upright.
Week Two Analysis: Last week, Andrew Luck looked a lot like a rookie quarterback getting his first start. He posted three interceptions and a lost fumble. But, there were signs of greatness mixed in as well. He found his secondary and tertiary receivers. And he demonstrated that he can make all his throws. A breakout in week two is possible against a very weak Vikings secondary. No team allowed more passing touchdowns last year than the Vikings, and last week, they picked up where they left off. They made the previously awful Blaine Gabbert look fantastic, with 260 yards, two scores, and zero picks. Leave it to the Vikings to turn Cecil Shorts into a waiver wire gem. Luck threw 45 times against a good Bears defense last week. If he throws that many times this week, he'll be in for a very nice game.