No question Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature
and from a fantasy perspective, at the top of most owners draft lists. There is
a bit of a wrench thrown into the situation this year as AP returns from his
knee injury that ended his season a year ago after 12 games.
If it was up to Adrian, he would suit up for week one against Jacksonville. The team is playing it a bit more close to the vest, stating they aren't going to push the All-Pro back too quickly. So that leaves fantasy owners in a bind. Currently AP is being drafted in the second round in 12 team league mock drafts (17th overall) and 11 backs are being selected ahead of him.
Terrell Davis, Denver
Injured: Week 4, 1999
1998 season: 16 games, 2008 yards, 21 TDs
2000 season: 5 games, 282 yards 2 TDs
Jamal Lewis, Baltimore
Injured: Preseason, 2001
2000 season: 16 games, 1364 yards, 6 TDs
2002 season: 16 games, 1327 yards, 6TDs
Edgerrin James, Indianapolis
Injured: Week 7, 2001
2000 season: 16 games, 1709 yards, 13 TDs
2002 season: 14 games, 989 yards, 2 TDs
Deuce McCallister, New Orleans
Injured: Week 6, 2005
2004 season: 14 games, 1074 yards, 9 TDs
2006 season: 15 games, 1057 yards, 10 TDs
Ronnie Brown, Miami
Injured: Week 7, 2007
2006 season: 13 games, 1008 yards, 5 TDs
2008 season: 16 games, 916 yards, 10 TDs
Kevin Smith, Detroit
Injured: Week 14, 2009
2008 season: 16 games, 976 yards, 4 TDs
2010 season: 6 games, 133 yards, 0 TDs
History states he won't be ready to roll when the season begins. He injured his knee late in the season and looking at history and based on the history cited above, he won't be nearly as productive as a 17th overall pick should be. Is he a better back than Smith, Brown etc?
Absolutely, his production on the field isn't being called into question. It is a question of when it will return. The fantasy season is short. Too short to roll the dice with AP in the second round.