Week Thirteen Analysis: A possible return for Greg Jennings this week actually helps Jordy Nelson, and here's why. In the six games Nelson has played since Jennings has been out, Jordy has been targeted five or fewer times in four contests. In the four games in which both were in the lineup, Nelson was seven or more times in three games. If his 61-yard touchdown last week in New York is any indication of what may come, Nelson is primed for another huge week against the Vikings. Last time Nelson squared off against Minnesota he had 63 yards and two touchdowns. Those same Vikings have allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers in the last three games.
Week Twelve Analysis: In his last five healthy games, Jordy Nelson has averaged six catches for 82 yards and a score. It's a shame that Nelson was rendered useless for three weeks due to ankle and hamstring injuries and a bye week. The Pack eased Nelson back into the swing of things last week in Detroit, as Nelson was only targeted five times, but you can bet that Mike McCarthy will unleash him against the Giants this weekend. The Giants have allowed either multiple wide receiver touchdowns or multiple 100-yard wide receivers in five of the last six games.
Week Eleven Analysis: It was a hamstring injury that kept Jordy Nelson out of the Week 8 game. An ankle injury in the first quarter of Week 9 was the culprit that sidelined him for most of that contest. However, a bye week and lots of rest mean that we should see Nelson in the lineup for this week's game against Detroit. Nelson's last meeting with the Lions was one for the ages, as he hauled in nine Matt Flynn passes for 162 yards and three scores in last year's season finale. We're hoping Nelson can mirror that performance, or at least top 90 yards and score, which is what he did in three of his last four healthy games.
Week Eight Analysis: The people of Wisconsin have been very happy over the last few weeks. It seems that a local fast food joint is offering 87-cent "Jordy Burgers" the day after Jordy Nelson scores a touchdown. With Nelson now scoring in three of the last four weeks, the hot beef has been flying out the drive thru windows on Monday afternoons. Nelson has now topped eight catches and 120 yards in each of the last two weeks as well, solidifying him as a number one wide receiver option once again. This week he faces a Jaguars team that has allowed Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green and T.Y. Hilton to top 100 yards and score in the last four weeks. Smell that? That's the smell of melted cheese on another Jordy Burger.
Week Seven Analysis: Jordy Nelson finally broke out of his funk last week in Houston, but the planets seem aligned for Nelson to have a disappointing outing this week against St. Louis. No wide receiver has topped 92 yards against the Rams since Week 1 when Calvin Johnson did it. Over the last three weeks wide receivers, as a team, are averaging only 107 yards per game against the Rams. Cortland Finnegan will likely line up against Nelson, and last week he did not allow Brian Hartline to garner a target.
Week Six Analysis: Jordy Nelson is averaging only 58 yards per game this year, last season he averaged 79 yards per game. Nelson has one touchdown in five games this year, while he had one score per game last season. These are significant fantasy points that you're not getting. Will it get better this week against the Texans? Maybe. Houston has only faced one above average passing game this season, Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Week 3. In that game they allowed the opposing wideouts to go off for 17 receptions, 243 yards and a touchdown. In every other game (featuring the tepid wideouts in Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee and the Jets) opposing wideouts have averaged only 100 yards per game. My thought is that Aaron Rodgers brings his A-game to town and Nelson has one of his better games of the season.
Week Five Analysis: Last season Jordy Nelson scored on 22 percent of his receptions. This season he has scored only once in 21 catches (just under five percent of the time). There are many factors as to why this is happening. There's the poor offensive line play that's forcing faster throws. Greg Jennings' injury meaning teams can put more coverage on Jordy. But this week seems to be a perfect matchup for Jordy's skill set, which is good because he needs a touchdown on each of his first five receptions to get back on to last year's pace. The Colts have allowed four wide receivers to top 80 yards in three games this season and have allowed a touchdown to a wideout in six of their last seven games.
Week Four Analysis: Since 2004, there have been 57 individual wide receiver seasons of 10 or more touchdowns, but only three players accomplished that feat with less than 100 targets. Randy Moss, Joe Jurevicius, and…Jordy Nelson. Nelson is on pace for 101 targets this season. So why hasn't he scored yet? The long ball has eluded the Pack so far. In their first three games, the Packers have not yet completed a pass of over 50 yards, something that has been a staple of their offense for ages. That changes this week against a Saints secondary that has allowed a couple long touchdowns already this year, and seven wide receivers to top 75 yards in their last five games and are reeling after three losses to open the season.
Week Three Analysis: At last season's crazy touchdown-to-catch percentage, Jordy Nelson would have had three touchdowns already in this young season. Reality has set in on Nelson, and although he has 11 catches, he hasn't had a Lambeau Leap as of yet. We knew that the 15 touchdown season wasn't sustainable, and I'm not sure his dry spell ends here. While the Seahawks have allowed a wide receiver touchdown in each of the first two weeks, they have not allowed a wide receiver to accumulate 70 yards and a touchdown in the same week since Week 5 of last season. Seattle's physical corners don't have the speed to hang with Jordy, which could be the difference if there's a long touchdown to be had.
Week Two Analysis: For those of you who think Greg Jennings is still the deep threat in Green Bay, you're gravely mistaken. In the last ten seasons, Jordy Nelson has been responsible for three of the Packers eight longest pass plays. Nelson is only entering his fifth year too, so that includes the times of Brett Favre, Donald Driver and Javon Walker as well. The last time Nelson faced the Bears he torched them to the tune of six catches, 115 yards and two touchdowns, including one Aaron Rodgers bomb from 55-yards. While the Bears were great at keeping opposing wideouts out of the end zone last season, they allowed only 11 touchdowns to the position, they allowed four of those to the Packers alone.
Week One Analysis: Jordy Nelson's amazing run last season keyed on his ability to score touchdowns at an amazing rate (15 in all). In one out of five receptions, Nelson scored. If we translate that ratio to Wes Welker's catch total, Welker would have scored 27 times! Some of you may be saying, "But Charch, he's no secret anymore and Cedric Benson is going to jump-start the run game." To you I say, stop drinking from Sebastian Janikowski's glass. The Packers threw the ball on over 60 percent of their offensive plays last season, and that number should see an uptick in Week 1 against the best run defense in the league, the San Francisco 49ers. In the Niners two playoff games last season, they allowed just over 215 yards per game just to wide receivers, to give you an idea at how bad that is, the worst team at this stat in the regular season (the Patriots) allowed 221 yards to wideouts in each game.
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