Week Fourteen Analysis:
The injured Chiefs defense has been brutalized the past three weeks, allowing nine touchdown passes and 373 yards per game. Granted, they faced Peyton twice. Still, this defense isn't trustworthy, especially if Justin Houston doesn't play again. Still, I'm not sure RG3 can take advantage. He's scored once in the last two games, and hasn't hit 300 passing yards since week three. I'm tempted to say that he'll do all right on the ground. He had a lot of carries and yards last week. And, the Chiefs allowed Mike Vick to run for 95 yards earlier this year. But, Griffin hasn't rushed in a touchdown all year.
Week Twelve Analysis:
In Washington, Robert Griffin is under a lot of heat from hometown fans, many of whom are actually talking about benching him for Kirk Cousins. He's not going anywhere for this game, though. Still, it's not an easy matchup, and I doubt Griffin is going to change minds on Sunday. The Niners rank 9th in passing yards allowed and fourth in passing touchdowns allowed. They're also in the top ten in quarterback rushing yards allowed, at just 11 per game. Show caution here.
Week Eleven Analysis:
When these teams met in the season opener, Robert Griffin was in his first game off knee reconstruction, and a shell of his normal self. But, he threw 49 times in catchup mode, and eventually found his way to 329 yards and two scores. Fast forward half a season, and Griffin looks a lot more poised, and he's running confidently. He's coming off a three touchdown game against Minnesota, and he's thrown multiple touchdowns in all three lifetime meetings with the Eagles. The Eagles pass defense numbers have improved a lot over the past few games, but they've faced Scott Tolzien, Terrelle Pryor, and Eli Manning.
Week Ten Analysis:
When Robert Griffin saw these same Vikings last year, he ran through Minnesota, tallying a ridiculous 138 yards and two scores on the ground. A repeat won't happen this year, since he isn't being asked to run as often, but a good rushing game could be coming. Griffin's mobility is much improved, and the only rushing quarterback the Vikings have faced this year, Cam Newton, scored against them. But, even if the Vikings stop RG3 on the ground, he'll likely do what every opposing quarterback does to the Vikings: beat them through the air. Seven of eight quarterbacks to face Minnesota have posted strong fantasy games. And, the Vikings may be without four starters in their secondary.
Week Nine Analysis:
There are few tougher fantasy players to figure out that Robert Griffin. Early in the year, when he looked rusty, he was still throwing plenty of touchdowns. Then, as he got healthier, and more confident, his touchdowns have inexplicably gone down. Even now, as we're looking at week nine, he's thrown more touchdowns in weeks one and two than the rest of the year combined. And he hasn't rushed a touchdown yet. Compounding matters, the Chargers secondary was brutal early on, but has settled nicely of late. San Diego hasn't allowed a passing touchdown in two games. Granted, they saw Chad Henne in one of those games. But, still, they locked down Andrew Luck in the other, which only adds to the mystery of this befuddling matchup for Griffin.
Week Eight Analysis:
It is official, RG3 has turned the corner. In his first four games, he did not trust his surgically repaired knee, stayed in the pocket, and only tallied 72 total rushing yards. Since their Week 5 bye, Griffin has returned as a changed man, gaining 77 and 84 rushing yards in the last two weeks. This week Griffin will be asked to keep pace with Peyton Manning and the Broncos, but after the Redskins put up 45 points against the Bears last week, he seems primed for a shootout. After all, in the last three weeks every quarterback not named Chad Henne has accounted for at least four touchdowns against the Broncos.
Week Seven Analysis:
We were all happy to see Robert Griffin running the ball well on Sunday night, after a week's rest. Now we need to get his arm working. He's thrown one touchdown in his past three games. That's brutal for fantasy owners. The high risk Bears secondary has had letdowns, like their 400 yard game to Ben Roethlisberger, but overall, they're a neutral matchup. The particularly bad news is that rushing quarterbacks get nothing done against the Bears. They've allowed one QB rushing touchdown in the last 34 games. Over that span, they've shut out rushing quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, and Michael Vick.
Week Five Analysis:
I'd like to believe that we're going to see a different, better, and more confident Robert Griffin coming out of the bye week. Not only will the rest help, but the league's most fantasy friendly secondary is on the schedule. Even before their drubbing at the hands of Peyton Manning last week, the Dallas secondary was in ruins. They've allowed over 400 passing yards in three times already! Most teams won't do that once all year, and Dallas has done it in three of five games! Worse, they've allowed a league high 14 touchdown passes. And, if Griffin has his wheels back, he could run one in. Why not, Peyton Manning, the modern day embodiment of Bernie Kosar, just did it.
Week Four Analysis:
I haven't been a fan of the Raiders rebuilt secondary, and they were blown out of the water on Monday night by Peyton Manning. While Robert Griffin isn't playing anywhere near Manning's level, I like his chances of a decent game here. Griffin has topped 320 yards in every game, but he's done so mostly through repetition. After not throwing more than 39 times all of last year, he's thrown 40, 49 and 50 passes in his three games this year. Oakland's last to opponents have thrown 38 and 39 passes, so I like RG3 to pass a lot again. While Griffin still hasn't played great football, I like his chances of being productive against a Raiders secondary that has allowed seven touchdowns to the position in its three games.
Week Three Analysis:
Hey, it's Ndamukong Suh against a guy with a rebuilt knee! What could go wrong? Impending doom aside, RG3 owners, tell me if this sounds familiar: Your quarterback's team, the Redskins, are facing a high powered offense that will probably get a big lead early against the Redskins' horrible defense. That means that RG3 will be playing from behind, and passing a lot, quite possibly in garbage time. Yep, that's been the formula for fantasy success for RG3. Despite some pretty shaky quarterbacking, Griffin's stats have been really good: 649 yards and five touchdowns. Garbage time stats count just like game-winning drive stats. It's his first back-to-back 300 yard games, and only his second back-to-back multiple touchdown games. The Lions secondary looks competent on paper, but they weren't tested by Christian Ponder in the opener or by the Cardinals with Larry Fitzgerald playing hobbled, and eventually leaving the game.
Week One Analysis:
Coming off his reconstructive knee surgery, I don't expect Robert Griffin to do much running in his opening day matchup against the Eagles. He won't have to. The Eagles are a horrible pass defense, maybe the worst in the league. They allowed the most passing touchdowns last year 33, including six to Griffin. Gone are Nnamdi Asomugha and Domanick Rodgers-Cromartie, which I suppose is addition by subtraction; and in their place are three new additions to the Eagles secondary, each castoffs from other teams. I don't trust this secondary to contain Santana Moss, let alone Pierre Garcon. Griffin should shine in his return.
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Practically week in and week out last year on Fantasy Victory, when talking about Robert Griffin, I mentioned that he was more than just an explosive runner. His passing was awfully good, and sometimes downright explosive. He posted two four-touchdown passing games last year, and threw touchdowns in six of his final seven games, including two during his doomed playoff loss. Of course, I mention his passing because he's coming off major reconstruction of his knee, and it puts his absurd rushing ability at risk. Last year, he was an RB3 masquerading as a QB2, bringing fantasy owners an absurd 51 rushing yards per game, and a 50-50 chance at a rushing touchdown. This year, he gains a healthy Pierre Garcon, and that's a huge benefit to a moribund receiver corps. They showed strong chemistry at the end of last year when Garcon was healthy. In a nutshell, I'm saying that Griffin won't be as mobile as last year, but it might not matter as much as some will think because Griffin is a better passer than people think.
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