Week Seventeen Analysis: The Texans has plenty to play for in Sunday's game, and with Arian Foster hurting, Matt Schaub could be throwing more passes than his usual most number in the low thirties. In games with more than 35 passes, Schaub averages 421 yards and three touchdowns per game. If he gets those reps he'll be fine. That said, Foster says he'll play, and the Texans are deep at the position, so he may not get to that level. Indy's secondary looks much improved, but their fourth-place schedule has them littered with awful opposing quarterbacks. Schaub's usual 240ish yards, and 1-2 scores feels likely, and he's got some rare upside beyond that.
Week Sixteen Analysis: People are pretty quick to remember Matt Schaub's 500-yard, five touchdown explosion, but aside from that game in week 11, Matt Schaub has reverted to his norm, a 240ish-yard passer with a coin flip's chance at a couple touchdowns. Bearing that in mind, his week to week matchups are almost irrelevant. He's had good games against good secondaries. And some clunkers against bad ones, like the last two weeks. The Vikings are a neutral matchup, although the possible return of bigger cornerback Chris Cook could help contain the physical Andre Johnson. In a nutshell, play Schaub if you usually would.
Week Fifteen Analysis: The less said about last week's game for Matt Schaub, the better. The game turned upside down quickly, and the Texans were discombobulated on both sides of the ball. Let's look ahead to this week's opponent, Indianapolis. The Colts secondary hasn't seen many quality passers all year. It's a whole lotta Lockers and Hennes, and Tennehills, and Weedens. So, the Colts secondary looks good on paper, especially since they're giving up only 229 passing yards per home game, and just one touchdown pass per game over their last eight starts. Schaub is the fourth best quarterback Indy has faced all year, and the other three, Brady, Stafford and Rodgers, combined to average 296 yards and three touchdowns.
Week Fourteen Analysis: It was a handful of years ago, but once upon a time Matt Schaub led the NFL in passing yards. His play over the last couple of weeks seems to harken back to those glory days, in which he let the ball fly to try to get the Texans back into games. With Arian Foster withering, he's averaging 350 passing yards per game to go along with eight touchdowns over the last three weeks.. Another yardage total near that 350-mark is well within reach this week in New England. The Patriots have allowed three of the last four quarterbacks they've faced to throw for more than 300 yards. Considering that both Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick have each beat the Pats for over 300 yards twice this season, I don't see any reason why Schaub can't do that too.
Week Thirteen Analysis: After his crazy explosion two weeks ago, Matt Schaub returned to his typical numbers last week, and I see another safe play coming up on Sunday. He faces a very sketchy Tennessee secondary that's allowed big games to some dubious quarterbacks of late, including Chad Henne, Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and even Christian Ponder, if you go back to week 5. Schaub's a one or two touchdown a game guy, and this feels like a two touchdown game since the Titans have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns, 22.
Week Twelve Analysis: As you already know, Matt Schaub went berserk last week, posting the second-highest yardage game in the history of the league. But will it carry over to Thanksgiving against Detroit? Let's remember, Matt Schaub is who he is, a competent quarterback who is rarely explosive like this. The last time he had a similarly crazy game, 497 yards and three scores in 2010, he followed it up with a pedestrian 240-yard, one-touchdown performance. For the past month, Detroit's secondary has been remarkable consistent, despite playing against a full spectrum of quarterbacks. They've allowed between 220 and 236 yards and exactly two touchdowns in each of the past four games. That sounds just about right for Schaub, based on his typical scoring patterns.
Week Eleven Analysis: The preferred Houston gameplan usually centers around a lot of running, and passing when necessary. That's how they can go to Chicago in a rain storm, and walk away with a win. That script will be followed closely this week, as Jacksonville is lousy against the run, and decent against the pass. That caps Schaub's upside, but we're used to that from a guy who hasn't topped 290 yards all year, and is averaging a lukewarm 1.4 touchdowns per game. Jacksonville has allowed just three touchdown passes in the past month, and that includes games against four solid passers: Palmer, Rodgers, Stafford and Luck. So, like usual for Schaub, he won't kill you, and he won't power you to victory.
Week Seven Analysis: I don't see how a defense can lose its three most important players without massive repercussions. Even the Ravens. The losses of Terrell Suggs, Ladarius Webb, and Ray Lewis will require a massive reworking of this defense, and I'm not sure it'll be in place and effective by Sunday. That opens the door for Schaub, who is usually pretty pedestrian. He's only posted one game with more than 205 yards and two scores. He's basically had four clunkers in six starts. He's got some rare upside here, as he goes against the 25th-ranked pass defense, that just lost one of the five best cornerbacks in football.
Week Five Analysis: The Jets appear to be in an organizational freefall, and the Texans are the consensus best team in the NFL. This game has the appearance of a slaughter. My biggest worry for Matt Schaub is that the Texans will stake an early lead, the Jets offense will do nothing, like usual, and run the ball throughout the game. It's not a stretch. Of the NFL's 32 starting quarterbacks, Schaub is way down at number 23 for passes thrown. If Houston can run, they will. The Jets are without Darrelle Revis, of course, which helps. His replacement, Kyle Wilson looked pretty bad as the starter last week. Let's just hope Schaub throws enough passes to be fantasy effective.
Week Four Analysis: The Tennessee secondary still isn't right from the offseason loss of Courtland Finnegan. They just got blow apart by the Lions combo platter of Matthew Stafford and Shaun Hill, to the tune of 450 yards and three scores. Even if you toss out the lucky hail mary reception, that's a bad stat line for Tennessee. The Titans have given up the third most passing yards, and second-most passing touchdowns. Schaub exploded last week with four passing touchdowns, so he does have some upside to his game, even though the Titans remain a run-first offense.
Week One Analysis: While all eyes will be on Arian Foster, the sneakier play on Houston's roster is Matt Schaub. The Dolphins only allowed five rushing touchdowns last year. And only one back topped 100 yards against them last year. The path of least resistance runs through Matt Schaub who posted strong numbers when they met last year, 230 yards and two scores, while completing a whopping 72% of his passes. Miami's pass defense is a lot more yielding than their stout run defense. They just traded away cornerback Vontae Davis, which hurts their depth. Miami allowed the 8th-most passing yards last year, and allowed multiple touchdowns or 300 yard passing games in 11 games. You drafted Schaub as a backup, but he's got starter potential this week.