Week Seventeen Analysis:
Drew Brees is absolutely dominating at home, averaging 351 yards and 3.3 touchdowns per game. That makes him Peyton Manning in Superdome games. And aside from Darrelle Revis, Tampa's secondary is a lousy unit that's allowed multiple touchdowns in 10 of 15 games. There's only one Revis, and Drew Brees is great at distributing his balls to his plethora of receivers. If it's not Jimmy Graham, it'll be Marques Colston, or Lance Moore, or Kenny Stills, or Pierre Thomas, or Darren Sproles.
Week Sixteen Analysis:
Drew Brees must be tired of hearing about his struggles on the road. Heck, I'm tired of talking about it. But, it's inescapable. Because it's true. He's absolutely dominating at home, averaging 351 yards and 3.3 touchdowns. When he hits the road, he's good for 60 fewer yards and almost two full touchdowns fewer than at home. In a different matchup, I'd tell you that Brees will break out with a big game, just to shut up the doubters. But, he's in Carolina. Now, granted, he just killed the Panthers two games ago. But that was at home. And, Carolina's elite pass defense is giving up less than one touchdown pass per home game.
Week Fifteen Analysis:
Drew Brees' season could be penned by Robert Louis Stevenson. At home, he's Dr. Jeckyll, an unstoppable force of good, where he posts per game averages of 351 yards and 3.3 touchdowns. Those Superdome numbers make him, effectively, Peyton Manning. But Brees undergoes a horrifying transformation on the road. Away from the Superdome, he's Mr. Hyde, posting the dramatically different numbers of 276 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game. Those numbers make him, effectively, Ben Roethlisberger, a borderline waiver wire guy for most of this season. So, instead of calling him Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde, let's go with Dr. Manning and Mr. Roethlisberger. Bad news. It's a road game. The Rams are merely a neutral opponent, so there's nothing stopping Brees from posting big numbers except the same travel that has befuddled him all year.
Week Fourteen Analysis:
It's three straight games with over 300 yards, and five straight games with multiple touchdowns for Carson Palmer. He's been one of fantasy football's best players over the last month. The emergence of Michael Floyd has helped a lot, as defenses no longer can choose to simply shut down Larry Fitzgerald and eliminate the Cardinals offense. The Rams secondary is a wobbly unit, with some particularly bad play from their cornerbacks. Last week, Colin Kaepernick just put up his second-biggest yardage game against them. The week before that, Josh McCown threw for 352 and two. The week before that Andrew Luck threw for 353 yards before yielding to Matt Hasselbeck who helped the Colts top 400 yards. So, Palmer has really nice upside this week.
Week Thirteen Analysis:
The stakes are enormous for Drew Brees in his matchup with the Seahawks as home field advantage could very well be on the line. Working in Brees' favor is the injury to cornerback Brandon Browner, and the suspension of his backup, Walter Thurmond. Side note, there aren't enough guys named Walter in the NFL. Working against Brees is the location. Brees hasn't topped two touchdowns in any road game. And the average passing game in Seattle is a meager 181 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. Still, it's Drew Brees, and he's got huge upside in every game, especially one against a secondary filled with replacements.
Week Twelve Analysis:
It was a rare one touchdown game for Drew Brees last week, marking just the second time in 13 games that he had failed to throw multiple scores. He still topped 300 yards though, for the fourth time in a row. Brees will surely rebound nicely against the awful Falcons secondary. Atlanta has allowed the second-most touchdown passes, including at least two scores to every opposing quarterback. Brees is an elite start this week.
Week Eleven Analysis:
Drew Brees is absolutely on fire. Over the past three weeks, he's thrown 11 touchdowns. Since week two, his average line is 341 and 3.1 touchdowns per game. He didn't even need to use Jimmy Graham for most of last week's 49 point explosion. But this week's matchup is a whole lot harder than the Cowboys. San Francisco's pass defense is very good, allowing less than one touchdown per game since the opener, including a shutout against Cam Newton last week. Am I worried? Not really. Brees saw these same Niners last year, and threw three touchdowns. And, the last time the Niners saw a Brees-quality starter? Back in the opener, when Aaron Rodgers threw for 333 yards and three touchdowns.
Week Ten Analysis:
With yet another big game from Drew Brees last week, he's now topped 320 yards in six of eight games, and thrown multiple touchdowns in seven of eight games. Ho, hum. Just another epic season from Drew Brees. The Dallas secondary looks improved on paper, after allowing just two passing touchdowns in the last four games. But, a deeper looks shows back to back quarterback rushing touchdowns allowed, and games against Matt Barkley and Christian Ponder. I'm not a believer. Especially against Brees, a guy who saw these same Cowboys just 10 games ago, and threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns.
Week Nine Analysis:
Drew Brees just threw five touchdowns, and the Jets just allowed five touchdowns. So, clearly, Brees is set for a 10 touchdown game. On the basis of last week's performances alone, you could make a case for Brees as the week's top quarterback. But the Jets are better than that. Those five touchdowns thrown by Andy Dalton represent the total number of touchdowns the Jets had allowed to six of their opposing quarterbacks. Tom Brady was held scoreless the week prior. So, Dalton's game was an aberration, and I'm not overreacting. Still, it's Drew Brees, and he's going to get his numbers. He always does. But he might just be held shy of 10 touchdowns in this game.
Week Eight Analysis:
Since the beginning of 2007, Drew Brees has had a completion percentage above 50 percent in every game but two. That's 101 regular season contests. Week 6 was one of Brees' two bad games in the last seven years. Odds are, it's not likely to happen again anytime soon. Especially this week against the Bills. Buffalo has allowed multiple touchdown passes to every quarterback they've faced, except the Browns duo of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden and have allowed over 300 passing yards in three of the last five weeks. Watch the injury status of Jimmy Graham; but even if he doesn't play, Brees is an elite start.
Week Six Analysis:
Drew Brees is as consistent a fantasy producers as you could ever want. He's scored multiple touchdowns in 28 of his last 31 games. That's remarkable. And, last week was his first game with less than 300 yards since week 12 of last season. The closest guy to Drew Brees that the Patriots have seen this year, Matt Ryan, blew up for 421 yards and two scores. Although it's impossible to ignore the three shutouts the Patriots secondary has pitched, even against lousy competition, I'm still not sold on New England's rebuilt secondary.
Week Five Analysis:
On Monday night Drew Brees tied his own NFL record with 9 straight games of 300 or more passing yards. Let me slow that down for you. He's passed for over 300 yards in 9 straight games… FOR THE SECOND TIME IN HIS CAREER! This week the Saints travel to Soldier Field to take on a Bears team that sounds a lot scarier than they are. In fact, the Bears represent a neutral fantasy matchup, as they've given up at least 227 yards and a touchdown to every quarterback they've faced this season. The Bears best member of the secondary, Peanut Tillman, has been dealing with a groin injury and was just roasted by Calvin Johnson last Sunday.
Week Four Analysis:
The retooled Miami secondary is looking much improved. Over the past two weeks, they've held Andrew Luck to one touchdown and Matt Ryan to 231 yards. I'm not saying this is a shutdown unit by any stretch, but the addition of Brent Grimes has helped a ton. They look better, and they'll need to be against Drew Brees. He's topped 322 yards in all three games, and has topped 300 yards in seven straight games going back to last year. Grimes might take Marques Colston away, but Miami has already struggled to stop tight ends in every game this year, and Jimmy Graham looks unstoppable.
Week Three Analysis:
Drew Brees is coming of an unusually bad game, with "just" 322 yards and one score. It was just his third game with zero or one score over his past 16 games. He seems primed for a bounce back game against a middle of the road Arizona secondary. Sure, Patrick Peterson will roam the field, but he didn't do much to stop Calvin Johnson last week, and Brees has an even deeper set of receiving options. Both of Arizona's previous two opposing quarterbacks threw multiple touchdowns, and I don't expect anything less from Brees this week.
Week Two Analysis:
In his two meetings with the Bucs last year, Drew Brees threw eight touchdowns. Eight! And over the past four matchups, he's averaged 331 yards. The Bucs had the NFL's bottom ranked pass defense last year, and even with the addition of Darelle Revis for about half the plays last week, they didn't look good. And even if Revis was at full strength, Brees could just go to any of his ancillary receivers. Geno Smith, a first start rookie quarterback who missed half of the preseason threw for 256 yards and a score. Brees was predictably great against a better defense last week, and is an elite start again this week.
Week One Analysis:
Drew Brees faced the Falcons just four games ago, week 13 of last year. I mention it because he had the worst game of his career. Zero touchdowns. Five interceptions. Drew Brees, the most dependable fantasy quarterback ever, went negative points against these same Falcons. The Atlanta secondary is in flux, with two new starting corners, rookie Desmond Trufant and former Eagle Asante Samuel. So, I don't see Brees posting back to back bad games against the Falcons when they're starting a rookie and a guy new to the system. And, especially when, prior to his five pick game, he had hammered the Falcons for multiple touchdowns in 11 of the previous 12 meetings.
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It's neck and neck between Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers as my top quarterback. I'm giving the nod to Brees though, because of his consistency. He's thrown touchdowns in 64 of his last 65 games. The absurdity of that statement demands that I repeat it. Drew Brees has thrown touchdowns in 64 of his last 65 games. Consistency wins fantasy championships, and nobody at any position provides consistency as well as Brees. But, he also gives you upside. Over those same 65 games, he's topped 300 yards 40 times; that's over half of his games. And, he's thrown multiple touchdowns in 51 of the past 65 games. So, Brees gives you a 78% chance at a multiple touchdown game, and layered on top of that a 61% chance at a 300-yarder. With the same cast of characters around him, and Sean Payton returning, there's no reason to expect a change.
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