Many of you have wrapped up the post season and crowned your champion, but whether you’re a part of a Week 17 championship, a two-week championship match or just competing for high score this week, the defense is the most interchangeable position in fantasy football. Play the matchups, play the hot hand and don’t be afraid to dump a stinker, especially if you’re in a re-draft league. Here are my top picks of the week and then some. Have a nice offseason!
1. Seattle Seahawks at ARZ
The Sea-chickens have been anything but in the last few weeks, hawking 11 interceptions in their last five games. Add in three sacks per game on average, three touchdowns from the defense and special teams and no opponent scoring more than 19 points against them in the last month and you’ve got the Colonel’s secret recipe for a winner. This week they face off against the buttermilk biscuits of offenses, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have allowed 11 sacks, turned over the ball seven times and never rushed for more than 74 yards in a game in the last three weeks. That leaves John Skelton or Kevin Kolb to put the ball in the air very often, giving Seattle plenty of opportunities to feast on a buffet of wobblers.
2. Green Bay Packers vs. DET
It’s true the Packers have nothing to play for. They could show up with 11 of their new shareholders playing defense and it really wouldn’t matter (maybe it wouldn’t even make a difference in the outcome). Chances are though that you will still see at least a half of the main cogs, including Woodson, Hawk, Matthews and Williams. I like that half of players, plus a half of thirsty unknowns against the Lions offense. Granted, Detroit has only turned the ball over once in the last three weeks, but they did give up 10 sacks in that time frame, and they very well may be sitting a few key players as well. Don’t forget about the mystique of Lambeau Field, the Pack have collected nine turnovers in their last three home games.
3. San Francisco 49ers at STL
Here’s a solid piece of fantasy advice when choosing a team defense, when in doubt, choose the team that’s facing the Rams. It just so happens that this week the Rams opponent is one of the league’s best defenses, the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in 12 of 15 games this season, and held opponents to 10 or fewer points in six of their games. They haven’t produced a ton of defensive touchdowns this year (only one), but lead the league in takeaways (36) and face what could be the worst offense in the league. Yeah, I said it Indy, what are you going to do about it? The Rams lead the league in sacks allowed with 52, and are the only team in the NFL in the 100’s in points scored (only 166). Oh, and Kellen Clemens will likely be your starter due to injuries to Sam Bradford and A.J. Feeley.
4. Philadelphia Eagles vs. WAS
For as disappointing a season as the Eagles have had, they’ve actually put forth a quality fantasy defense. In the last three weeks, when the team’s season hasn’t mattered, Philly has held opponents to only 36 total points, had 16 sacks, seven takeaways, a safety and a touchdown. You can’t ask for much more than that. This week they get to face Rex Grossman and the Washington Redskins. Grossman is the guy who snapped the Minnesota Vikings nine-game streak without an interception last week and has thrown an interception or lost a fumble in 17 straight games (stretching back to 2009).
5. New York Jets at MIA
The Jets have given fantasy owners a boring, ho-hum, average product this season, but what a bang they will end with this Sunday. Although not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the Jets need a win and a lot of things to go their way this weekend, and what has been working for them in the past few weeks have been the forced fumbles. The Jets have recovered five fumbles in the last four games, and they happen to square off against a Miami team that has lost six fumbles in the last three weeks. It’s like un-hold-able ball meets impressive recovering machines.
6. Chicago Bears at MIN
The three things you can count on, death, taxes and turnovers from the Vikings. The Bears look to seize only one of the above as they travel to the Metrodome this weekend. Although Chicago’s defense has been in full “give up” mode for the last two weeks (allowing 73 points in those contests) and they have only had five takeaways in the last five weeks, the matchup against Minnesota is too good to pass up. The Vikes did not turn the ball over in their last meeting, but they did allow five sacks, a Devin Hester kick return for a touchdown and a safety. To top it off they have the recently concussed Christian Ponder at the helm now. Ponder has thrown six interceptions and fumbled twice in his last four games and has been cleared to play this weekend.
7. Atlanta Falcons vs. TB
Last Monday night, the Falcons defense was no match for Drew Brees and the Saints, but they did happen to nab two interceptions
(a rarity for Brees). It shows that the team has a little moxie, even in a game where they allowed 45 points. This week he faces the (might as well be wearing the creamsicle uniforms) Buccaneers. Tampa has been held under 20 points in eight of their last nine games and has lost 18 turnovers in only the last five weeks. They’re teetering on four turnovers a game people! Atlanta still has a decent shot to lock up the number five seed with a win and a Detroit loss, and I’m sure that the Falcons would much rather square off against an NFC East opponent than the Saints again. Look for their defense to make a big statement this weekend.
8. Detroit Lions at GB
It’s very tough to ignore two important stats that have to do with this matchup. First, Detroit is leading the NFL with seven defensive touchdowns this season, including three in the last three weeks. Second, the Packers lead the NFL in allowing zero defensive touchdowns and have only allowed 12 turnovers in 15 games this year. So why put the Lions in the start category against Mr. “Discount Double Check” himself? Because Rodgers will likely be riding the pine for two thirds of this game, leaving Matt Flynn and the rest of the backups to play against a Lions team with a little something to prove.
9. Miami Dolphins vs. NYJ
For the first seven games of the season, the Miami Dolphins looked to be targeting little more than to win the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes, but they managed to turn things around after their seven-game losing streak and have won five of their last eight games. The Dolphins defense has had much to do with that. In their first seven games they forced only four turnovers and had 15 sacks. Since then Miami has 11 interceptions and 24 sacks in their last eight games. This week they face a Jets team that has had a tendency to gift wrap opposing defenses a few free touchdowns. Mark Sanchez and company have seen seven turnovers returned for touchdowns against them this season.
10. New England Patriots vs. BUF
Do you remember way back to Week 3, when the upstart Buffalo Bills beat the Patriots in a 34-31 shootout? Well Bill Belichick probably does too. New England is one win away from securing home field advantage in the AFC, so I’m gathering that they will want to tear apart Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills this Sunday. Although Buffalo broke their seven-game losing streak last week with a 40-14 trouncing of the “chosen one” Tim Tebow and the Broncos, this is a little bit different. Not counting last week, the Bills had allowed eight turnovers in their previous three games. The Patriots have had an interception in 13 of 15 games this season, including two picks on Fitzpatrick in the first meeting. New England’s seven-game winning streak has come on the heels of 18 takeaways during that time frame.
Take a chance on…
Kansas City Chiefs at DEN
The team that took out the Packers has had 11 sacks and six takeaways in the last four weeks. The luster seems to have faded from Tim Tebow’s reign of terror, as he threw four interceptions last week and the Broncos allowed two defensive touchdowns in a game for the second time this season.
Minnesota Vikings vs. CHI
The nine-game streak without a pick is over, but the Vikings have quietly been an average fantasy defense this season, totaling 13 fumble recoveries and 31 sacks in their last 11 weeks. Josh McCown and Kahlil Bell don’t scare anyone and the Bears have turned the ball over 14 times in the last five weeks.
San Diego Chargers at OAK
The Chargers have come up with 11 sacks, five interceptions and a touchdown in the last three weeks, while the Raiders have given up seven picks and two touchdowns in their last four games. Carson Palmer hasn’t been great with the protection of the ball, turning the ball over 17 times in his nine games played.
Indianapolis Colts at JAX
This one might be a little out there, but the fact that the Colts get to face Blaine Gabbert on Sunday is what lands them in this category. Gabbert has been responsible for 10 turnovers in only the last four games. Don’t forget that the Colts are on a two-game winning streak and have allowed only 29 points in their last two.
You could also play the Bengals vs. BAL, Raiders vs. SD, Jaguars vs. IND
Don’t start if you don’t have to…
Baltimore Ravens at CIN
The Ravens defense has done next to nothing from a fantasy standpoint for the last month and a half. While winning four of their last five, Baltimore has only forced four turnovers since Week 12. The Bengals have been pretty sharp playing conservative ball-control football this season, allowing less than two sacks per game and turning the ball over only 21 times.
Buffalo Bills at NE
Two words… Tom Brady.
A few more? The Patriots have turned the ball over twice in seven games! I don’t care who is playing defense in Buffalo, I’m not going near their defense this week.
New York Giants vs. DAL
It appears that Tony Romo will be playing this Sunday night, which means that the bruised and battered
Giants secondary will see an aerial assault that they can’t handle. Three weeks ago in a win, the Giants gave up 34 points to Dallas and only forced one fumble.
Houston Texans vs. TEN
Houston has nothing to play for, as they have the last two weeks. It shows. The Texans defense has forced one fumble and had five sacks in their last two weeks against Carolina and Indy. There’s a good possibility that most of the starting defense will watch this game from the sideline throughout the second half.
Avoid at all costs Saints vs. CAR, Cowboys at NYG, Broncos vs. KC
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