Defensive Rankings Week Fifteen

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City
While weekly garbage time has added chunks of passing yardage to their tab, the Packers have also been an extremely opportunistic defense. They’ve collected a league-best 27 interceptions (three teams are tied for second with 18), and only the Lions have scored more than Green Bay’s five defensive touchdowns. Kansas City hasn’t topped 10 points in any of their last six games, and the Packers could conceivably give their safeties a day off against the Chiefs’ Tyler Palko-led passing game. Palko’s thrown two touchdown passes and seven interceptions in his four starts, and the potential switch to fifth round rookie Ricky Stanzi or the rusty and recovering Kyle Orton (finger) would be equally appetizing for Charles Woodson & Co.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh
Bolstered by a historically good run defense that’s giving up just 3.1 yard per carry and has yet to cede a rushing score, no team has surrendered fewer points this season than the 49ers (14.0 per game). Clearly, sled dog Rashard Mendenhall doesn’t stand a chance. The only way to beat the 49ers is through the air, but they also play solid pass defense, as they’ve collected one interception for every touchdown pass they’ve surrendered (18:18). Per usual, Ben Roethlisberger finds himself near the top of the league with 35 sacks, and an ankle injury has put his Monday night availability in serious question. Whether it’s a severely hobbled Big Ben or Charlie Batch, this has all the makings of an ugly, grind-it-out slugfest, so San Francisco makes for a very safe play at home.

Detroit Lions at Oakland
Despite giving up at least 27 points in five straight games, the Lions’ fantasy defense still ranks very well. However, their game log reads like a heart monitor—they’ve scored a pair of defensive touchdowns on three separate occasions, with each of these spikes separated by about a month of flat-lined production. Their most recent breath of life came last week against the Vikings, when they collected four sacks, three fumble recoveries, three interceptions, and their fifth and league-leading sixth defensive touchdowns. While the pattern would suggest that they’re due for a week 15 clunker, the Lions welcome back a well-rested Ndamukong Suh, and they square off against a Carson Palmer-led Raiders offense that just surrendered five turnovers and a touchdown to the Green Bay Packers. Detroit’s swarming defense should have the turnover-prone Palmer on his heels once again.

Cincinnati Bengals at St. Louis
The Bengals have played solid run defense all season, surrendering just 3.8 yards per carry, and after holding superstar Arian Foster to just 41 rushing yards, we can safely assume that the slumping Steven Jackson will be neutralized as well. Cincinnati’s once-elite pass defense took a huge hit when they lost Leon Hall, and four straight opposing starters have thrown two touchdown passes. Fortunately, throwing multiple touchdown passes in a game is something fantasy flop Sam Bradford hasn’t done in his last 15 games. In fact, he’s failed to throw a single touchdown pass in three of his past six games, and only one quarterback has absorbed more than his 36 sacks. The Bengals are among the league leaders in both sacks (36) and fumble recoveries (12), so expect plenty of pressure Sunday.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville
There’s not a team in the league more reliant on one single player than the Jaguars are on Maurice Jones-Drew. The NFL’s leading rusher has accounted for 46 percent of Jacksonville’s offensive yardage, but Atlanta’s strength happens to be their stout run defense. The Falcons are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to opposing backs, and while they’ll likely be without top cornerback Brent Grimes again, Blaine Gabbert and his receiving corps simply aren’t good enough to take advantage. While Gabbert has remarkably thrown a pair of touchdown passes in back-to-back games, he’s also averaged just 147 yards in his last eight. He’s completing just 50.3 percent of his passes on the season, he’s mistake-prone and he plays spooked from the pocket. Expect Atlanta to build an early lead and pin their ears back against the rookie.

Baltimore Ravens at San Diego
The Ravens rank third in both scoring defense (15.5 points per game) and total defense (278.1 yards per game), and they lead the league with 45 sacks. They’re also well above average in the turnover department (24) and in defensive scoring (four touchdowns, plus a return score). Philip Rivers’ career-high 17 interceptions rank one behind Josh Freeman for the league lead, but he’s now gone three consecutive games without a pick. Moreover, the Chargers’ offense is finally clicking—they’ve scored 38 and 37 points in their past two games. However, the big numbers came against Buffalo and a decimated Jacksonville defense, so don’t shy away from Baltimore’s elite defensive unit this week.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago
Around the league, we’ve seen some of the best and worst quarterbacking

in NFL history this season, and Caleb Hanie is on the wrong end of the spectrum. In his three starts, Hanie has thrown six interceptions and taken 15 sacks. Moreover, the Matt Forte-less Bears have totaled just 13 points in their last two games. Although Seattle is a middling fantasy defense, they’ve been hot lately, notching seven interceptions and a defensive score in their last three games. Hanie’s incompetence renders this a fail-proof matchup for the Seahawks.

Chicago Bears vs. Seattle
The Bears have been an ordinary real-life defense this season, but they’ve been an upper echelon fantasy defense thanks to an impressive 10 fumble recoveries, four defensive touchdowns and three Devin Hester return scores. Unfortunately, a matchup with the Tarvaris Jackson-led Seahawks doesn’t look nearly as favorable as it did a couple months ago. Jackson has cut down on mistakes (he’s been intercepted just once in his last three games), and Marshawn Lynch is running as well as any back in the league. The Seahawks have scored at least 30 points in back-to-back victories, and Caleb Hanie continues to leave Chicago’s defense in disadvantageous field position. It’s a cold-weather home game, but a big performance out of the Bears’ defense is far from a sure thing.

Houston Texans vs. Carolina
Despite losing Mario Williams way back in early October, the Texans’ balanced defense has been downright dominant, leading the league in yardage (274.9 yards per game) and ranking fourth in scoring (16.0 points per game). While Cam Newton has propelled Carolina’s offense into the top third of the NFL in both scoring and yardage, only two quarterbacks have thrown more than his 16 interceptions. The Panthers have averaged 31 points per game in their last four contests, but this will be the best defense Newton’s faced in his 22 years, so Houston will have their opportunities.

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco
The Steelers’ defense ranks second in both scoring and yardage, so they’re rock solid, but they haven’t made nearly enough of the “splash” plays that are vital for fantasy purposes. They rank below average in all point-scoring categories: interceptions, fumble recoveries, sacks and defensive touchdowns. San Francisco’s offense is essentially the mirror image of Pittsburgh’s defense. Their incredibly conservative ball-control philosophy has led to minimal mistakes—Alex Smith has thrown just five interceptions all season. While defenses have had trouble racking up fantasy points against San Francisco, this game projects as a field goal fest, so the Steelers have a high floor (because they won’t give up many points) and a low ceiling (because they won’t make many big plays).

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis
Tennessee’s middling fantasy defense draws one of the most charitable opponents of the week. It took three full months of disastrous play by Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter before Dan Orlovsky got his shot in Indianapolis, which tells us everything we need to know about the career clipboard holder. Last week against Baltimore, Orlovsky completed less than 50 percent of his passes for 136 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He also took four sacks and fumbled three times. Only two teams have recovered more fumbles than the Titans (11), so Tennessee is a very safe play for fantasy owners this week.

New York Jets at Philadelphia
It’s no secret that the Jets sport an elite pass defense, but they’ve also returned to last season’s dominant form against the run, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry in their last five games. One way or another, LeSean McCoy will get his. However, it figures to be a long day for the enigmatic Michael Vick and the erratic Philadelphia passing game. Consider New York a solid play with huge upside, as Jeremy Maclin is hobbled, Vick is still banged up, and the Eagles have shown a tendency to quit when the going gets tough.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay
Dallas’ defense has been ordinary across the board this season, so they’re purely a matchup play. Their once-dominant run defense has been backsliding for two months, but it shouldn’t take the Cowboys long to build a lead, meaning LeGarrette Blount will likely spend much of the game wearing a baseball cap. Josh Freeman leads the league with 18 interceptions, and to make matters worse, he’s dealing with a deep bruise on his throwing shoulder. In his last four games, Freeman has thrown eight interceptions, and he’s only passed the 200-yard threshold once. At this point, the improvisation of athletic backup Josh Johnson poses more of a threat to Dallas’ defense, so fantasy owners should be pulling for a Freeman start.

New York Giants vs. Washington
In the Giants’ past three games, they’ve allowed Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo each to throw four touchdown passes and top 320 yards. A meeting with Rex Grossman might be just what the doctor ordered. While we’ve seen more of “Good Rex” than “Bad Rex” in recent weeks, we’re still talking about a guy who’s